Many clients have asked how I am going to vote in the Referendum, as you may appreciate there are passionate differences between the Leave and Remain camps, so probably best not to state my own views on this.
David Cameron agreed to a referendum, and also agreed to re-negotiate our terms of Membership in the EU. We were also promised that a full and proper debate on the issues would follow.
Both the Remain and Leave camps have been using scare tactics, but David Cameron and George Osborne have taken this to the extreme, so much so that nobody believes a word they say anymore. When you lose your temper, as Mr Cameron has done on several occasions recently, then surely you have lost the arguement?
Why on earth can’t we simply be told the facts. It would be helpful, as a starting point, to have a chart showing what each Member GDP is and and what they pay to the EU and what they get back in financial support, so we can compare the relative costs of membership .
Most people are of the opinion that the real facts are being withheld from the public at large, particularly on immigration, this has swung the “debate” if you can call it that, firmly in favour of the Leave camp.
Financial Impact
The financial impact of leaving has been widely exaggerated, most informed opinion indicates that the long term financial forecast of whether to Remain or Leave are largely neutral but indicate that the immediate financial impact may be negative.
For our private clients we have already prepared Brexit ready portfolios that hopefully will minimise the impact of market volatility.
Centralised control can stifle an economy
The European Union was born out of the very noble aim of never again allowing large-scale war in Europe to be possible, but the consequence of this has been to centralise power in the form of control by bureaucracy. This centralisation of power has meant many regions of Europe have lost the freedom to make their own choices.
The result has meant economic misery in southern Europe, for example. Limited in the policies they can set – especially the setting of their monetary policies –the southern European nations of Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain have been hamstrung.
Without control of their own currency, they have been thrust into a deflationary depression. We now have 39% youth unemployment of 45% in Spain and 49% in Italy. This has caused widespread and increasing resentment.
The UK is currently thriving relative to the rest of Europe, as we still have the pound and can determine our own fiscal and monetary policies.
Wider implications of Brexit
The Remain and Leave campaigns have focussed on what this all means for the UK. The wider implications, should we leave, are far more important. If the UK did leave the EU, then I feel that several other Member states would follow and this makes the break-up of EU almost inevitable. (If it isn’t already doomed).
Now that would really spook the markets (as if the markets weren’t volatile enough already).
That would be a great shame, an organisation that has such lofty ideals deserves to succeed. However the stifling and autocratic manner in which the unaccountable and un-elected bureaucrats run the EU has gone too far.
The great cover up on immigration will surely cause most people to give great consideration on how to vote.
The next few weeks could usher in a period of considerable uncertainty and volatility, let us hope that whatever decision is made is the right one, both for the UK and Europe.
To find out more about Brexit you can download our FREE Brexit booklet – sm68 – BREXIT
