The UK’s momentous decision to leave the EU will lead to a lengthy period of considerable uncertainty, the wider consequences will be far reaching.
We believe there will be a domino effect throughout Europe, and that numerous European countries will be demanding a referendum also. The UK can therefore anticipate a very robust negotiation with the EU as the EU will be keen to make the UK pay and thereby prevent other European countries following the UK’s example, in order to prevent this.
David Cameron has announced he will resign as UK prime minister by October, setting the stage for a Conservative leadership election this summer.
It has been forecast that losses in services exports and investment flows will overwhelm any benefits of lower payments to the EU.
The Euro will weaken over time and the value European shares is likely to drop.
We see a weakening of the property market, particularly in London, prices are far too high in any event.
The world investment markets always react badly to uncertainty and we anticipate a large sell off shortly, this may lead to some opportune buying discerning investors.
Clients who took advantage of our Brexit ready portfolios should (hopefully) see a further uplift of values.
We will keep a close eye on the upcoming developments, but it’s worth noting that it will likely take two or more years for the UK to leave the EU. During this time, existing laws and regulations will continue to apply until the point of renegotiation.
This link gives an update on likely events and stages to now occur.
Do we believe that this is the right result for the UK?
This is a revolt of the oppressed against an arrogant condescending political elite, the ordinary people’s views and feelings have simply been ignored for far too long. Could the referendum have produced a different result ? Almost certainly, however the negative tactics of the Remain camp simply made the ignored populous more determined to vote Leave.
We believe that the best result for the UK would have been a proper renegotiation of our position in the EU, not the rather pathetic attempt at negotiation made by David Cameron. Would such an attempt have succeeded, hardly likely given that the EU leadership is even more arrogant than our blinkered political Westminster elite.
Given the unrest and dissatisfaction within the EU, we do see how the European union can survive in its present form.
